Presidential Plinko

The above animation shows a single ball representing Biden’s current total electoral votes dropped through a Plinko board whose height roughly matches the uncertainty in the Economist’s election prediction model before any votes were counted. How surprised would you feel to see this outcome if you dropped a ball into a real Plinko board of the same size?

For more information about how the Plinko board represents uncertainty, or for predictions made from polling data before election day, see below.

Pre-election day predictions